25/10/26 GULLIVER ECONOMIC TIMES

GULLIVER 25/10/26 ECONOMIC TIMES
REMEMBER, FOR EVERY GULLIVER THERE ARE MANY LILLIPUTIANS
   “Beware- and be aware – of survivorship bias, which makes us focus on astonishing and inspirational stories, while ignoring numerous cases of individuals on the same track who never came close to success”
Data Cruncher
Atanu Biswas

        Jonathan Swift’s great satirical novel, Gulliver’s Travels, was published 300 years ago this week — on Oct 28, 1726– with the original title, ‘Travels Into Several Into Several Remote Nations of the World. In Four Parts. By Lemuel Gulliver, First a Surgeon, and then a Captain of Several Ships.’
    There is something oddly soothing about Lemuel Gulliver. He goes through life threatening situations such as storms, shipwrecks, pirates, being left by his companions, and mutines, and still manages to survive and tell the tale. Gulliver’s story is, by nature, a survivor’s story.
    His extraordinary adventures — in Lilliput, where tiny people are constantly fighting petty political feuds; in Brobdingnag, where giant humans criticize European customs; in Laputa, a place full of impractical intellectuals cut off from the real world: and in Houyhnhnms, where rational horses coexist peacefully with humanoid savages called Yahoos–make every extraordinary danger appear survivable.
    Which is why we should look at Gulliver through the lens of an idea that sounds thoroughly modern: survivorship bias
    The idea of survivorship bias can be traced back to Diagoras of Melos, a 5th century BC Greek poet and sophist, or professional travelling teacher. Diagoras, an atheist, was once shown some painted tablets depicting sailors who had prayed during a violent storm and survived shipwreck. He asked a deceptively simple question: “Where are the pictures of all those who prayed and then drowned?”
    That question carries a remarkable modern insight: we tend to build our understanding of things from what is visible, and ignore what is not, or has disappeared/removed. It’s the essence of survivorship bias–a tendency to overestimate the likelihood of success, because failures have quietly vanished from our field of vision, along with the corresponding data.
More than 200 years after Swift, statistician Abraham Wald encountered a remarkably similar problem during WW2. The military wanted to reinforce bombers returning from combat. Analysts examined bullet holes in the aircraft that had made it back home. The obvious suggestion was to add armour to the places where the aircraft had suffered the most damage.
Wald saw a trap. The aircraft being examined were survivors. They had been hit and had nevertheless managed to return. Wald realised that the damage visible on the returned planes weren’t necessarily the most vulnerable places in the aircraft. Absence of damage in a particular area could be more ominous if a hit there prevented the aircraft from returning. The lesson was to consider not only the survivors, but also those who didi not survive. One of the most important statistical ideas is to account for both groups.
As humans, we focus on astonishing and inspirational stories — like a runaway boy becoming a film star, or a street food seller becoming a famous sportsman — while we ignore that numerous such individuals never came close to success.
A college dropout, now a successful entrepreneur, can tell us how taking risks and ignoring conventional wisdom ‘made the difference’. Maybe it did. But thousands may have taken similar risks, ignored similar advice, worked just as diligently, only to close their businesses. Their stories don’t appear in newspapers, business schools, or inspirational books.
In his 2007 book, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Nasim Nicholas Taleb called data obscured by survivorship bias ‘silent evidence’. Success has a microphone; failure often has silence.
Over the last 300 years, Gulliver’s Travels itself has undergone a kind of cultural selection. It’s been rewritten, abridged, illustrated, translated, parodied, and adapted into various media. But the Gulliver most people remember is not necessarily the one Swift originally created.
Children’s Gulliver, cinematic Gulliver, comic Gulliver have all survived Swift’s original satirical Gulliver, making Lemuel a survivor twice over: first as a traveller, then as a cultural character.
So, three centuries after Gulliver and about two-and-a-half millennia after Diagoras, the question remains the same: where are the stories of those who didn’t survive, the Lilliputians of history and data?
(The writer is professor of statistics, Indian Statistical Institute (ISD), Kolkata


QUOTES 10/11/26

Copyright@shravancharitymission

QUOTES 6/11/16
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Everything changes nothing changes
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It’s easy to make a buck. It’s a lot tougher to make a difference…TOM BROKAW
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Supreme Self is mistaken for this universe by the power of maya. If we think deeply, the universe disappears and Brahmn alone remains…THUS SPAKE SRI RAMA
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Panic causes tunnel vision. Calm acceptance of danger allows us to more easily assess the situation and see the options…SIMON SINEK
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For an oil lamp to burn, the wick has to be partially immersed in the oil. If the wick is completely drowned in oil, it cannot bring light. Life is like the wick of the lamp; you have to be in the world and yet remain untouched by it… SRI SRI RAVI SHANKAR
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The definition of today’s AI is a machine that can make a perfect chess move while the room is on fire… ANONYMOUS
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What is there in a name? It is merely an empty basket, until you put something into it…CHARLES BABBAGE
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To be an ideal guest, stay at home…EW HOWE
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I will honour Christmas in my heart and try to keep it all the year. I will live in the Past, Present, and Future. Spirits of all Three shall strive within me. I will not shut out lessons that they teach… CHARLES DICKENS, A Christmas Carol
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Our failure to properly deal with Germany and Japan early cost the world dearly later on. We dare not make the same mistake with China…STEVE FORBES
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Diabolical forces are formidable. These forces are eternal, and they exist today. The fairy tale is true. The devil exists. God exists. And for us, as people, our very destiny hinges upon which one we elect to follow…ED WARREN
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This is not a how-to book, whether to build an economy, an army, or a nation. It is an account of the problems my colleagues and I faced, and how we set about solving them…LEE KUAN YEW, The Singapore Story
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Technology is nothing. What’s important is that you have faith in people, that they’re basically good and smart, and if you give them tools, they’ll do wonderful things with them…STEVE JOBS
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POEM: THE FESTIVAL OF LIGHTS… HAPPY DIWALI

Copyright@shravancharitymission

THE FESTIVAL OF LIGHTS—HAPPY DIWALI


Kamlesh Tripathi


It’s Diwali, the festival of lights,
That celebrates the victory of good over evil,
Truth over falsehood, hope over fear,
And spreads joy all over.


It’s five days of passionate festivities,
With sweets, rangoli, and lamps, freely available.
The fireworks ascend,
As darkness recedes and sorrow ends.


It celebrates wisdom dispels ignorance,
Pokes through the veils of the mind’s ignorance.
As Ashwin wanes and Kartik begins,
Amavasya’s darkness brings a new dimension.


Marked in October or November’s embrace,
It follows the harvest with warmth and grace.
Before winter descends with its chill,
The golden diyas shine to the hilt.


From Dhanteras and Dhanvantari’s healing art,
To Lakshmi and Ganesha, cherished in every heart;
The churning ocean’s treasures of yore,
Find echoes in legends and sacred lore.


Ayodhya glows as Rama returns,
With Sita and Lakshman in his fold.
Hanuman’s loyalty adds to the cheer,
As Diwali lamps magnify the cheer.


From Ravana’s fall to Rama’s victory,
From Krishna’s triumph over Narakasura’s cruelty,
With Shiva, Vishnu, Durga and Kali’s grace,
Gods and demons meet in myth’s timeless space.


Sparklers and phuljhadis brighten the skies,
As radiant sparks dance across the skies.
The darkest night wears a celestial glow,
While hopes blossom where lamps aglow.


In life’s struggles, Diwali brings light,
It’s an oasis of peace in a world of fright.
The cosmos adorns its glorious robe,
As countless lamps illuminate the globe.


May love conquer hatred, may goodness unite,
May every heart shine with compassion bright.

Let joy and peace bless every life—
Happy Diwali, a festival of light!


kamleshsujata@yahoo.com


(The author is a senior ex-corporate executive, a cancer activist and a columnist)

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